Is an alliance between moderate and conservative right the political solution in the EU?
Is an alliance between moderate and conservative right the political solution in the EU?
War fronts are multiplying and the Old Continent must decide about its future
Happy New Year! It’s going to be a crucial one in every aspect. Europe is going to decide about its future and the same applies for USA. The war in Ukraine is still raging and not much will be decided from the West’s point of view before the American elections. War fronts are multiplying in Biden’s days and Europe’s only option now is to wait.
If Trump is elected, things would change - dramatically many claim - for the Old Continent. “If reelected, he would end our commitment to the European alliance, reshaping the international order and hobbling American influence in the world”, wrote Anne Applebaum in “The Atlantic”. And she quotes Trump from his (and Dave Shiflett’s) book “The America We Deserve”: “Pulling back from Europe would save this country millions of dollars annually.” That was published though in January 2000 and he didn’t do it when he was in the White House. He said in May 2023 about Ukraine that “I will have this war settled in one day, 24 hours”. We bet that definitely scared Volodymyr Zelensky, who’s relying on European assistance. Anyway, it’s time for Europe to give an end to its dependence on NATO and form its own army; but that’s costly, can’t happen in an instant and requires agreement on important issues where choices of national governments vary. Europeans share an “allergy” in defense spending and that could prove dangerous in the future.
The political elites in Europe are turning their attention to this year’s European Parliament election. We wonder if all voters have realized what’s at stake. It’s our future. Let’s have a look. That’s the European Parliament Popular Vote Projection 2019 – 2024 by Europe Elects: European Popular Party or EPP: 22.8% (179 seats), Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats or S&D: 17.9% (142), Identity and Democracy Group or ID: 12.1% (93), European Conservatives and Reformists or ECR: 11.1% (81), Renew Europe or RE: 10.4% (84), Greens–European Free Alliance or G/EFA: 7% (49), LEFT: 5.5% (36). It hasn’t changed really from the previous one. But, it tells the truth; the right is dominant, but it’s not yet! It’s doing well but hasn’t ballooned. Circumstances are very conducive, but that’s all. Who holds the key? The EPP does as the major force on the right and it should decide. What a dilemma that is! If the Christian Democrats, that are culturally liberal as the rest of the EPP, continue to reject any reflection on the future of the European right that includes any scenario of collaboration with parties that belong to the socially conservative ECR and ID, they will probably continue to lose voters to them and they might soon get in deep electoral trouble. “The Italian politician indicated a European alliance encompassing the moderates (EPP), the conservatives (ECR) and the liberals (Renew) as a ‘goal worth working towards’”, wrote Otto Lanzavecchia in the Italian Decode39 (29th of March 2023) about Berlusconi’s aspiration in this direction. In the same source we read that “there have long been talks of a growing entente between the leaders of the EPP and the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), the European group headed by Italian Prime Minister Meloni. Some within the EPP are wary of the ECR’s conservative tilt, but others recognize it as a natural, up-and-coming partner”. However, the 2024 European Parliament election is looming and the ECR and ID parties are doing well in the polls. European elections are considered by some voters the ideal chance for expressing their discontent with the policies of their respective governments.
Look at Portugal. According to Aximage poll, Socialists (PS) that just came out of a scandal that led to the resignation of Prime Minister Antonio Costa and the announcement of a general election, have 34,1% of voting intentions, while their main adversaries from the right, the PSD (EPP) have 24,8%. How come? Well, the ultra-conservative Chega (ID) has 16,3%. Please note that in the election of 30th of January 2022, it got 7.2%; it has more than doubled its score. The right-wing vote is thus split and the Socialists might again form a government with the left wing Bloco de Esquerda for a start, plus PAN (environmentalist and animal welfare party). Then, it depends on the CDU and PAN performance. What would be the only option for PSD if it comes to get a mandate to form a government? Christian Democratic CDS-PP that has participated in government formation in the past, is scoring low right now (1,2%).
Why Chega has seen its percentages in the polls skyrocketing? Center-right PSD has failed to turn to the right where it should (issues of identity, immigration, education and historical interpretation) and it’s ironically called by some conservatives “direita fofinha” (sweetie or cute right). Thus, it is losing part of its conservative base to the ultras, name them populists, or nationalists or extremists, whatever, of the right. The tie is theoretically in favor of the right, but as PSD that’s afraid of the left, has stated it has no intention to turn to Chega under any circumstances. Look at Germany. According to the latest INSA poll, the Christian Democrats of CDU/CSU (EPP) get 32%, the national conservative AfD (ID) gets 23%, and Social Democratic SPD gets 15%. The Greens get 12%, the Liberals of FDP (RE) 5% and the left wing LINKE, 4%. If the CDU chooses to rule again with SPD when time comes, AfD will continue to rise, looting the Christian Democratic base. Immigration is obviously the catalyst.
The alliance in the European Parliament between the EPP and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), that centrist project that kept out of key positions and of power in general the radicals, is broken. Though the EPP is really unwilling to turn right, Socialists see right-wing ghosts everywhere. “EU Socialists Threaten Boycott Over EPP’s Right-Wing Pivot”, was the title in an article in “The European Conservative” by Thomas O'Reilly (May 9, 2023). That’s really the case, though things happened in between. “Cooperation between the S&D and EPP is currently the cornerstone of the EU’s legislative process. A rupture between the two groups would represent a serious blow to the European political status quo and potentially cripple this legislative process. García Pérez described how recent EPP approaches to nationalist and Eurosceptic parties constituted a ‘red-line’ moment for the S&D and contravened the progressive principles of the parliamentary bloc which represents centre-left parties from across the EU… The EPP is the largest faction within the European Parliament and includes the German Christian Democrats and the ruling Greek New Democracy. Many on the Right have criticised the group for failing to stand up to one-sided Green and migration-related EU legislation”, wrote O’Reilly.
A few months are left for a crucial European election. For some in the EPP, the dilemma is: Macron or Meloni? Yes, that could be an important question.